"In the high end, there was a lot of aspirational pricing going on," Coldwell Banker Realty's Michael Collins told The Real Deal in March. "Wealthy people were just throwing numbers on homes because some of those properties were extraordinary, and it was difficult for us agents to comp them."
Bel Air's comps no longer need guesswork. Over the past six months the neighborhood's estate tier has produced several hard numbers, and almost none came from a seller who chose the price and waited for a buyer. They came from a foreclosure auction in Pomona, a no-reserve online auction, and a resale that followed a trustee's sale. Each one shows what a buyer pays once the seller has a deadline. Together they are now the reference points for every Bel Air estate listed this fall.
The $130 Million Number
Casa Encantada at 10644 Bellagio Road set the clearest example. The 40,000-square-foot estate, built in 1938 by architect James Dolena on 8.4 acres above the Bel-Air Country Club, sold for $130 million at a foreclosure auction in Pomona in July. According to the Los Angeles Times, the buyer was an LLC tied to Peter Thiel.
The asking prices before that sale tell the story. The late Gary Winnick wanted $225 million in 2019 and $250 million in 2023. The estate was relisted at $170 million in April 2026, and three months later it went to the highest bidder.
So the clearing price came in 23.5 percent below the final conventional ask, and the 2023 ask was nearly double it. The $130 million is still one of the highest home prices ever recorded in Los Angeles. It reflects a property worth a great deal, priced by the buyer and not the seller. Casa has set records before. It sold for $12.4 million in 1980, a national high at the time, and for $94 million to Winnick in 2000.
Three Deadlines, Three Prices
Casa was the largest of these sales but not the only one. The same pattern appears at a smaller price and a larger one.
| Property | Earlier asking price | Latest reported figure | How the price was found | Status as reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Encantada, 10644 Bellagio Road | $250M in 2023; $170M in April 2026 | $130M | Foreclosure auction, July 2026 | Sold |
| Crown Bel Air, Bel Air Court | $105M package, spring 2026 | $54.4M high bid | No-reserve auction, May 2026 | In contract as of Sept. 9, 2026 |
| 1116 Chantilly Road | $35.7M in 2023 | Listed near $20M | Resale after a trustee's sale | In contract, late August 2026 |
| 677 Nimes Road | Nearly $50M in 2021 | $30M auction reserve | Online auction, bidding through June 11 | No result reported |
Crown Bel Air is a roughly 16-acre assemblage that Bassam Alghanim began buying in 1979. Its addresses include 991, 1000, 1005, 1031, 1037, 1111 and 1401 Bel Air Court. It was marketed at $105 million ahead of a no-reserve auction with Concierge Auctions. The high bid was $54.4 million, or $1,287 a square foot. The Real Deal reported the package in contract at that bid in early September, about half its original price, and the priciest residential contract in Los Angeles County that week.
1116 Chantilly Road shows how the pattern works below the nine-figure tier. The 18,500-square-foot home was built in 2024 and first listed in 2023 at $35.7 million. A notice of default followed in September 2024 with more than $15 million in debt outstanding. The home was then set for a trustee's sale, and ownership passed to a Santa Ana-based LLC last October. Relisted at nearly $20 million, or $1,081 a square foot, it led the county's signed luxury contracts in late August.
677 Nimes Road shows the stage before a forced price. Developer Edward Ehsan bought the site in 2015 for nearly $5.3 million and offered the land for $15.9 million and later nearly $22 million. He then built a 19,348-square-foot home with parking for about 50 cars. It came to market in 2021 just under $50 million, was cut below $40 million, and then went to Paramount Realty USA's auction with a $30 million reserve. No outcome has been reported, so the reserve is the seller's floor and not a market price.
Why a Forced Sale Becomes the Comp
An asking price is what a seller hopes for. A deadline sale records what the deepest buyer actually paid on a fixed date. When the top tier has few closings, the documented number carries more weight than any number of hopeful ones, and Bel Air's top tier has very few closings.
That scarcity is why Collins's point about comps matters. The estates are one of a kind, so the traditional valuation method has little to work with. Agents, buyers and lenders all need some reference, and in 2026 the auction results are the most current ones available. A buyer offering on a Bellagio Road estate this fall will bring $130 million for Casa Encantada to the table. A seller who prices an assemblage will hear about $54.4 million for Crown Bel Air.
Earlier sales show the gap is not new. When Le Belvedere at 630 Nimes Road traded in 2018, it sold for $56 million after asks of $85 million and then $72 million. It later sold to James Packer for $110 million in 2025, but its earlier sale went through the same downward ladder. The One at 944 Airole Way, once marketed at $500 million, was listed at $295 million and drew a $126 million bid at a 2022 bankruptcy auction, about $141 million with the auction fee.
Pricing to the market's level can help a seller. Rochelle Atlas Maize of Nourmand & Associates described a south Beverly Hills listing in March. The seller wanted to list at $6 million, and the agents argued the only way to reach $6 million was to list just under $5.8 million. The home drew nine offers and went into escrow at $6.3 million. "It's a really, really hard psychology for sellers to understand," Maize said.
The Listings Still Pricing Against the Old Anchors
Several of Bel Air's most visible listings are now being judged against those auction results.
- La Fin, 1200 Bel Air Road. First listed in 2022 at $139 million and cut in January 2026 to just under $100 million. Aaron Kirman of Christie's International Real Estate Southern California called the cut a sign of a "more pragmatic luxury market."
- Bellagio Place, 11005 Bellagio Place. Luxford Group's contemporary home on the same Bellagio corridor as Casa Encantada came to market at $88 million in July. It had not traded since it was completed in 2023. No change or sale has been reported since.
- 1101 Bel Air Place. The former home of Quincy Jones sits in the middle of the Crown Bel Air parcels and was on the market at roughly $40 million in spring 2026, after a further price cut.
Each of these sellers now faces a nearby comparison that a buyer can document. That is the practical cost of Casa and Crown for everyone else.
The Tax Bracket That Moves With the Final Price
Forced pricing also changes the transfer tax. For City of Los Angeles transactions closing after June 30, 2026, Measure ULA adds 4 percent on sales above $5.4 million and below $10.9 million, and 5.5 percent at $10.9 million or more. Both rates sit on top of the city's 0.45 percent base transfer tax. The city says the thresholds are adjusted every year for inflation and that ULA is calculated on gross value, including liens and assumed loans.
As an illustration only, 5.5 percent of $130 million is $7.15 million. Coverage of the Casa Encantada sale does not say what tax was actually paid.
Auctions raise one more question. According to Concierge Auctions, the Crown Bel Air terms describe a 12 percent buyer's premium that bidders owe in addition to the purchase price. Neither the city's FAQ nor the auction terms says whether that premium counts toward the ULA tax base. Anyone bidding near a threshold should get a written answer from their own tax and legal advisors before the auction closes.
What the Weekly Contract Data Adds
The broader $4 million-and-up market across Los Angeles County supports the same reading. Marcy Roth of Douglas Elliman's Eklund Gomes team compiles a weekly count of MLS contracts in that tier, and The Real Deal reports it.
- The week reported Aug. 26: 20 contracts and $177 million in asking volume, up 40 percent from a year earlier. Roth described buyers as "price sensitive."
- The week reported Sept. 15: 22 contracts and $181.2 million, down 21 percent year over year.
- The week reported Sept. 29: 21 contracts and $145.5 million, down 36.1 percent from a year earlier. The top contract was just under $13 million.
Contract counts held steady at around 20 a week while dollar volume swung. That is the pattern of a market where deals still happen and the price level does the adjusting. In Bel Air, the price level has come from the auctions.
Questions This Raises
Has Crown Bel Air closed? As of the Sept. 9 report, the package was in contract at the $54.4 million high bid. No closing price has been reported.
What happened at 677 Nimes Road? Bidding was scheduled to run through June 11 with a $30 million reserve. No result has been reported.
Does an auction buyer's premium count toward Measure ULA? No public guidance found so far answers this. The city bases the tax on gross value, so it is a question for a bidder's tax counsel before bidding.
When the nearest comparable sale came from an auction, a valuation has to account for both that number and the gap between it and the old asking price. If you are deciding whether to list a Bel Air estate this fall, or what to offer on one, Joseph Babajian can prepare a confidential home valuation that reads the 2026 auction results alongside your property's own record. Request a private consultation.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
